The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the average regular gasoline price in 2025 will be $3.09 per gallon. In its latest outlook, the EIA projects prices of $3.10 in Q2, $3.14 in Q3, and $3.01 in Q4 of 2025. This follows a 2024 average of $3.31 per gallon.
Compared to its March forecast, the EIA’s April update shows slightly lower price expectations for 2025.In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasted that U.S. regular gasoline prices will average $3.11 per gallon in 2026, down from its March estimate of $3.21 per gallon. The updated projections for 2026 include quarterly averages of $2.99 in Q1, $3.21 in Q2, $3.22 in Q3, and $3.00 in Q4.
This marks a downward revision from March’s forecast, which had projected $3.11, $3.30, $3.33, and $3.10 for the respective quarters. The EIA also noted that this summer’s inflation-adjusted average gasoline price is expected to be the lowest since 2020.The EIA expects U.S. gasoline prices to average around $3.10 per gallon in summer 2025 and $3.20 in summer 2026, driven by seasonal travel demand.
The overall lower price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are mainly due to declining crude oil prices. However, the EIA notes that refinery closures and reduced gasoline inventories may increase refining margins, partly offsetting the impact of falling oil prices.
The EIA projects that U.S. summer gasoline prices will fall below $3.50 per gallon for the first time since 2020, when they averaged $2.55. Prices peaked at $4.67 in 2022 but have declined since. As of April 14, regular gasoline averaged $3.168 per gallon, down $0.46 from a year earlier.
AAA reported the average price at $3.162 on April 18, compared to $3.167 yesterday, $3.210 a week ago, $3.078 a month ago, and $3.674 a year ago.The highest U.S. average for regular gasoline was $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022, according to AAA.
