Fitch Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency rating to ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook, citing ongoing energy sector reforms and improved foreign currency supply.
These reforms, including a focus on renewables, are expected to support a sustained current account surplus and reduce external vulnerabilities.Fitch expects Nigeria’s external position to stay positive despite global challenges, supported by rising oil production and export diversification.
The agency highlights energy sector reforms, increased renewable investment, exchange rate flexibility, and fuel subsidy removal as key drivers of stronger macroeconomic stability and external resilience.
Fitch remains optimistic on Nigeria’s outlook, but JP Morgan warns that U.S. tariffs and low oil prices could push the current account into deficit and weaken the naira past ₦1,700/$ if prices stay below $60/bbl.Fitch projects Nigeria’s current account surplus to average 3.3% of GDP in 2025–2026, despite noting risks from falling oil prices, capital outflows, and reform delays.
While external pressures remain, the agency sees Nigeria’s improved macro policies, FX liberalisation, and energy reforms as supportive for medium-term stability—if reform momentum is sustained and global conditions stay stable.
