Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their oil price forecasts after OPEC+ announced plans to increase output faster than expected. Morgan Stanley now projects Brent Crude at $62.50 per barrel for Q3 and Q4, $5 less than its previous estimate. The bank also expects a larger oil surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.
OPEC+ plans to boost oil output by 411,000 barrels per day, nearly triple the earlier target, signaling a shift from efforts to support prices. In response, Goldman Sachs has further lowered its oil price forecasts, now expecting Brent Crude to average $60 per barrel in 2024 and $56 in 2025. WTI Crude is projected at $56 for 2025, down from $59, and $52 for next year.OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, marking a second consecutive monthly increase despite weak prices and demand concerns.
Goldman Sachs sees this move as a strategic effort to manage U.S. shale competition and maintain group unity. The bank now expects another 0.41 million bpd increase in July, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity. However, it warns that high spare capacity and recession risks could pressure oil prices downward.
