Russia has revised its economic outlook, projecting a 5.3% drop in exports and lowering its expected oil price from $69.70 to $56 per barrel.
This could reduce government revenue, but officials say it’s unlikely to significantly impact wartime spending. Increased income from non-energy sectors and the National Wealth Fund—capable of covering shortfalls for up to two years—are expected to cushion the effects.
Urals oil, Russia’s primary export blend, dropped to $52.76 per barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk earlier this month, according to Argus Media data. The price last fell below $50 in June 2023.The Economy Ministry also revised its Brent crude forecast, lowering it to $68 per barrel from the previous estimate of $81.70.
Brent briefly dipped to a four-year low below $60 earlier this month, amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S., and the OPEC+ alliance’s plan to increase production next month.While the ministry maintained its 2025 economic growth forecast at 2.5%, it adjusted the 2026 estimate downward to 2.4%, from the earlier projection of 2.6%.
Officials also noted ongoing inflationary pressures, projecting year-end inflation at 7.6%, up from a previous forecast of 4.5%, despite the central bank’s benchmark interest rate holding at a record 21%.
