Oil prices fell as traders assessed the impact of ongoing US tariff tensions, with concerns of a market surplus growing. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.3%, settling around $61 a barrel after limited progress in trade talks between the EU and US.
The IEA revised its oil demand forecast down by nearly a third, expecting oversupply through 2026. Oil has dropped about $10 this month due to fears of a global recession affecting energy demand, particularly in the US and China.
These concerns, coupled with OPEC+’s faster-than-expected output increase, have worsened the outlook.OPEC has reduced its oil consumption forecast for the next two years by 100,000 barrels per day, following a similar cut by the US Energy Information Administration.
Energy Aspects Ltd. lowered its annual oil-price forecast by $10 a barrel, citing an almost certain global recession. HSBC analysts also noted that the 2025 oil market surplus is growing due to weaker demand and increased output from OPEC+, suggesting a larger surplus than previously anticipated.
