Super oil majors are ramping up oil production, complicating the energy transition. Despite claims that the shift away from fossil fuels is inevitable, Exxon, Chevron, and other U.S. oil giants continue to outperform their European counterparts. Companies that prioritized core oil businesses while making minimal green concessions have fared better than those heavily investing in renewables.
Shell, for instance, has recognized the high risks of aggressively betting on the transition.Shell won its appeal against a court-ordered production cut just as renewables faced setbacks. Now, it’s focusing on gas, lowering its spending target for 2025-2028 to $20-$22 billion and aiming for a 4-5% annual LNG sales increase until 2030.
Despite this, some still claim the oil and gas industry’s days are numbered.Exxon plans an 18% oil and gas production boost over five years, increasing spending. Chevron is acquiring Hess and expanding Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field by 260,000 bpd. U.S. Big Oil rejects peak oil fears. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies balances low-carbon expansion with strong oil and gas focus, achieving the highest 14.8% return among peers.TotalEnergies secured financing for its Uganda EACOP project, reinforcing that peak oil is far off. After BP admitted its green push failed, Big Oil has returned to hydrocarbons. BP now plans to boost oil and gas spending by 25% while cutting transition investments by 70%.
Under investor pressure, it aims to launch 27 new projects in five years, though 2030 output will still be below 2019 levels.BP has abandoned plans to cut oil production, refocusing on hydrocarbons. It approved a Trinidad gas project and two Iraqi oil fields. Meanwhile, China’s CNOOC discovered a 733-million-barrel oil field offshore Shenzhen, highlighting deepwater drilling’s growing importance as China pushes for energy independence.
CNPC’s Tarim Basin project in Northwestern China pushed onshore drilling to new depths, reaching 11,000 meters. Drilling began in 2023, and after 279 days, it surpassed 10,000 meters—the deepest well in China and Asia, and the fastest drilled beyond this depth, completed in March 2024.
