A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could significantly impact energy markets, according to Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon. He noted it’s still early in the process but said a truce would reduce geopolitical risk, likely lowering oil and gas prices.Jorge Leon noted that the chances of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal have risen following the recent Zelensky-Trump clash.
A ceasefire would have major humanitarian and energy market impacts, likely leading to sanctions relief on Russian hydrocarbons and lower gas prices, especially in Europe.Jorge Leon noted that a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire would have limited impact on oil prices since Russian production is constrained by OPEC+ rather than sanctions. However, increased Russian flows and reduced geopolitical risk could still lower prices.
A weaker oil market might also encourage the U.S. to exert maximum pressure on Iran, as losing 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports would be more manageable with rising Russian and OPEC+ supply.Jorge Leon noted that a Ukraine-Russia peace deal could shift global trade flows, potentially leading to some Russian gas returning to Europe. While a permanent ceasefire remains distant, he sees a glimmer of hope. Jorge Leon is an energy economist with over 15 years of experience in research and consulting.
He previously worked at BP (2018–2022) and OPEC (2013–2018). Rystad Energy, where he currently works, is an independent research and intelligence firm providing data-driven insights for the energy sector.
