OPEC+ plans to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by late 2026. Russia’s Novak confirmed the timeline remains unchanged, with no talks of deferral yet.A delegate stated that global oil markets are too fragile to boost production now, with no decision yet on the 120,000 barrels-a-day increase.
This would be the fourth delay in production revival since 2022, with a final decision expected in the coming weeks.Trump has urged OPEC to cut oil prices, but at $74 a barrel, many members struggle with government spending.
OPEC’s Secretary-General emphasized long-term impacts in decisions.Harry Tchilinguirian of Onyx Commodities said supply return in April is possible, but the oil price will ultimately decide.Kazakhstan, slow to meet cutbacks, assured OPEC+ it will take further action to fulfill its commitments.
Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev spoke with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and OPEC.OPEC+ first planned to revive production in June but has postponed it three times due to slowing demand in China and rising supplies in the Americas.Increasing output could worsen the expected oil surplus.
The IEA forecasts global supplies will exceed demand by 450,000 barrels per day in 2025. JPMorgan and Citigroup predict prices will drop into the $60s by year-end.Neil Atkinson, former IEA official, said OPEC+ should hold off, as the market lacks room for more oil.Increasing output could worsen the projected oil surplus. Even if OPEC+ maintains current production, global supply will surpass demand by 450,000 barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.
JPMorgan and Citigroup forecast prices could drop into the $60s by 2025.Neil Atkinson, former IEA oil markets head, noted that OPEC+ should hold off, as the market doesn’t have capacity for more oil given the current supply-demand balance.
