IEA slightly lowers Russia’s 2025 oil output forecast, citing sanctions but expects workarounds. New deceptive shipping may limit US restrictions’ impact, keeping production at 9.25 million barrels daily, just 150,000 below last month’s estimate.The Biden administration imposed its toughest sanctions on Russia’s energy sector in January, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s position in future peace talks.
The measures blacklisted key traders, tankers, and major producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, while also targeting Russian insurers and ordering US oil service firms to exit.
Although President Trump seeks a swift Ukraine peace deal and called his recent talk with Putin “highly productive,” his administration has not signaled any plans to ease sanctions.According to the IEA, US restrictions affected tankers that transported about 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude daily last year, along with 200,000 barrels of petroleum products.
After initial buyer caution, Russian oil briefly built up, especially in China, widening price discounts.As operators offload pre-sanction cargoes, tensions eased, and January exports rose to 9.2M barrels daily, exceeding the $60 cap.
IEA expects new workarounds after sanctions fully take effect on Feb. 27.IEA: Russian crude exports rise as refinery attacks cut domestic demand, lowering Q1 processing by 170,000 barrels daily.
